Thoroughbred racing in 2011

Horseracing Betting Lines

12/01/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thoroughbred racing in North America will be remembered as the first year since 2007 that Zenyatta was not a featured horse. The champion mare was retired after her courageous race in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic, falling just short of catching Blame at the wire.

The void left by Zenyatta was not completely filled by any one horse. In fact, you could say that even all the top horses in 2011 were unable to fill the space left by the great lady.

However, thoroughbred racing did not stop because of the retirement of Zenyatta or any of the other horses sent to the farm. A full year of racing proceeded to take place in 2011 with many horses stepping forward into the spotlight,

As always the first part of the year was focused on Kentucky Derby prospects.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo was the consensus favorite for the Run for the Roses. After an undefeated two-year-old season in 2010 the colt, trained by Todd Pletcher, looked impressive in winning the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park in March. However, a third-place finish in the Wood Memorial made Uncle Mo look vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Dialed In won the Florida Derby and was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Mo was entered in the race and made the 9-2 second choice, but veterinary tests showed something wrong and he was scratched the day before the Derby.

The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby went to 20-1 longshot Animal Kingdom who won the Vinery Spiral Stakes five weeks before the Derby. Animal Kingdom, trained by Graham Motion for Team Valor, then finished second to Shackleford in the Preakness Stakes, but could do no better than sixth in the Belmont Stakes. Still the Kentucky Derby champ was regarded as the best three-year-old in training.

After the Triple Crown excitement, the older thoroughbreds gained the focus of the racing world. Older male horses needed to establish themselves quickly as some fillies were taking the next step forward as four-year-olds.

Most of the top older male horses were coming off three-year-old seasons that were promising, but with many questions. The only Triple Crown race winner from last year to still be training was Belmont champ Drosselmeyer. Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box was back as was Preakness runner-up First Dude. Also back was Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy and Blue Grass champ Stately Victor.

Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti was easily the best older horse in training and in Europe Goldikova was preparing for another try in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

As the year wore on the horses beat each other up with no older male truly taking control. Tizway won two of four starts and didn't race after winning the Whitney. The speedy Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap and the Goodwood with several solid showings in between and he may have secured a title with a strong showing in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Four-year-old fillies Blind Luck and Havre de Grace resumed their rivalry from last year. Havre de Grace defeated Blind Luck in the Azeri at Oaklawn Park and the former posted a nose victory in the Delaware Handicap, the same result as the 2010 Delaware Oaks.

Havre de Grace took on all challengers during the year and put herself in the Horse of the Year picture with a win over males in the Woodward at Saratoga. Blind Luck was also heading towards a Breeders' Cup showdown with her rival until a last-place finish in the Lady's Secret that eventually led to retirement.

The three-year-old filly group proved to be a deep one. Royal Delta won the Black-Eyed Susan and Alabama Stakes, Plum Pretty took the Kentucky Oaks and Cotillion, It's Tricky captured the Acorn and Coaching Club American Oaks and Zazu was the best filly in California with wins in the Hollywood Oaks and Lady's Secret.

Coming in from Europe to race on the turf was Cape Blanco. The four-year-old colt won all three starts in the U.S. defeating Gio Ponti in both the Man o'War and Arlington Million. He also won the Turf Classic at Belmont Park, but an injury prevented him from going in the Breeders' Cup Turf and was retired.

Uncle Mo eventually came back to racing with a second to Caleb's Posse in the King's Bishop and a win in the Kelso. Stay Thirsty won the Jim Dandy and Travers to get involved in the Eclipse talk and Animal Kingdom was injured and sidelined until 2012.

The 2011 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs was headlined by the Ladies' Classic on the first day and the Classic and Mile on the second day.

Three-year-old fillies dominated in the Ladies' Classic. Plum Pretty set the pace, but gave way to Royal Delta who defeated It's Tricky by 2 1/2-lengths. The win by Royal Delta gave trainer Bill Mott his fourth Ladies' Classic win and a chance to pull off the double with Saturday's Classic.

The second day of the 28th World Championships was going to decide the early favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Union Rags was the 11-10 favorite in the 13-horse field. However, the two-year-old raced wide most of the race and fell a head short of catching Hansen.

Goldikova was after a fourth straight win in the Mile. The mare's magic ended in a third-place result behind Court Vision. Caleb's Posse won the Dirt Mile and Amazombie captured the Sprint.

It all came down to the $5 million Classic at 1 1/4-miles on dirt at historic Churchill Downs. The filly Havre de Grace was going to try to duplicate Zenyatta's 2009 Classic victory. She was the 4-1 second pick behind 7-2 favorite Flat Out. Uncle Mo, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, went off at 5-1 in the 12-horse field.

Game On Dude set the pace while Havre de Grace was running sixth, Flat Out was in eighth and Uncle Mo pressed the leader after starting from the outside. Game On Dude was a determined pacesetter, nearly pulling off a gate to wire victory.

Drosselmeyer, 2010 Belmont Stakes winner, went off at 14-1 as did Game On Dude. Drosselmeyer was racing in ninth through the early going. The four-year- old was six wide coming into the stretch under jockey Mike Smith, Zenyatta's rider.

Drosselmeyer caught Game On Dude in late stretch and was able to better the pacesetter by 1 1/2-lengths. This year's Belmont Stakes champ Ruler On Ice finished third with Havre de Grace getting fourth just a head before Flat Out. Uncle Mo tired badly to finish 10th.

The big winner was trainer Bill Mott who pulled off the Ladies' Classic- Breeders' Cup Classic double.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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